Scenario Planning in the Age of Black Swans

A Conversation with Brenden Varcoe, Chief Strategy Officer at Dabble

In an era where the unexpected has become routine, scenario planning is no longer a luxury, it’s a strategic necessity. For Brenden Varcoe, Chief Strategy Officer at Dabble, scenario planning isn’t about prediction, it’s about readiness.

In this Exec Edge Q&A, Brenden shares how to embed scenario thinking into quarterly strategy rhythms, make uncertainty a practical asset, and build pre-committed responses to shocks...all without drifting into hypotheticals.

How has your approach to scenario planning evolved given the unpredictability of recent years?

The last few years — with pandemic disruptions, regulatory volatility, and market sentiment swings — have shown us that traditional forecasting models fall short under extreme uncertainty.

Scenario planning needs to shift from static, annual exercises to dynamic, rolling cycles. Embedding scenario thinking into quarterly strategic reviews is key. It becomes less about trying to predict the future, and more about being ready to move quickly when issues arise.

What makes a scenario truly useful — rather than just an academic exercise?

A useful scenario sharpens decision-making. It’s not just about what could happen — it’s about knowing what we would do if it did.

We ask questions like: “What levers would we pull if customer acquisition costs doubled overnight?” or “How would we respond if two key markets shut down in a week?” These help us challenge assumptions and often lead to different decisions today or pre-commitments for tomorrow.

Can you walk us through a moment where scenario planning helped your team make a better call — or avoid a bad one?

Scenario planning was critical when I was leading Australia’s largest retail operator with over 4,000 outlets. We had modelled hypothetical state-wide network outages and natural disasters which proved invaluable during the COVID lockdowns.

Having already stress-tested our responses meant we could move fast and stay ahead of disruptions, rather than scrambling to react.

How do you prepare for low-probability, high-impact events without spinning in hypotheticals?

We focus less on guessing specific “black swan” events and more on testing the resilience of our business model.

For example, we ask: “What happens if revenue drops by 40% for three months?” These aren’t forecasts they’re practice runs. The goal is to surface fragilities, build contingencies, and reduce decision-making time under pressure. That way, when the unexpected happens, we’ve already rehearsed the response.

What frameworks or techniques help you pressure-test assumptions under extreme uncertainty?

One approach I find powerful is Reverse Stress Testing — asking, “What would have to be true for our strategy to fail?” and working backwards from that point.

It helps challenge our thinking, especially during high-growth phases where it’s easy to mistake momentum for inevitability.

How do you keep scenario planning grounded in business priorities — not just risk mitigation?

Scenario planning isn’t just about avoiding disaster, it’s about designing for optionality.

To stay focused, we anchor each scenario to core business drivers — customer acquisition, retention, and market access. That ensures both volatility and opportunity are mapped back to real strategic priorities, not just theoretical risks.