Decisions in the Dark: How Experian’s Luke Westlake Navigates Uncertainty

In today’s fast-moving, data-saturated world, making decisions with confidence is rarely about having perfect information. Instead, it’s about knowing how to navigate uncertainty, balance intuition with evidence, and keep strategy grounded in reality.

To explore how leaders approach these challenges, we sat down with Luke Westlake, Director of Product & Strategy at Experian, for a candid Q&A. Luke shares the mental models, decision-making techniques, and lessons learned that help him guide strategy when the path forward is anything but clear. Q1. What mental models do you rely on when faced with uncertainty, and how do they help you simplify complexity? I find the strongest technique I have for managing uncertainty is regular and structured communication. If my strategy is regularly tested for clarity through engagement with senior stakeholders, it becomes much clearer what is certain and what is uncertain, and most importantly, the different perspectives on possible actions, outcomes and risks. When I look to recommend strategy or decisions, I typically reach for several models. Firstly, the 3 horizon model of separating direction into near term, transformation and future helps link near term tactics to long term strategy. I’ve also found market sizing and capability maps are essential for defining and communicating strategy. Q2. When data is missing or contradictory, how do you decide whether to pause for more information or move forward with what you have? Making decisions on limited data is common, but if there’s no data or significant contradictions I look for what is the smallest next step that meaningfully increases what data is available, as well as what that data would need to demonstrate to justify progressing. For example, rather than going from market research to a MVP, a smaller step that generates more data might be a “paper” prototype, or if customer demand needs to be tested, seeking co-funded development. If there’s no “smaller step” that can be executed without substantial investment, then that is a good sign to wait for conditions to change or more data to emerge. Q3. Share a decision you made with incomplete information that turned out well, or poorly, and what you learned from it? My learning experiences from product decision making have been improving my recognition of when key assumptions have been made about how customers expect a job to be done. Previously I’ve designed a solution that on paper seemed to solve a common customer problem, but fell flat when brought to the market because it failed to consider a technology interplay that was crucial for several customers. The lesson has been to validate how customers expect a problem to be solved, not necessarily expecting they have a clear vision for a solution, but because this approach often uncovers hidden requirements or assumptions. Q4. How do you know when to trust your gut versus digging deeper into the numbers? For me the key is reflecting on whether that pattern is emotional, or whether that pattern is driven by past experiences; and reflecting on whether that experience or domain expertise can be relied on again. When I do rely on intuition, I’m also looking to data or indicators after a decision to validate that intuition. I’m also very cognisant of when my intuition or experience has started to become dated and needs to be re-tested with fresh data or information. Q5. What frameworks or checks do you use to ensure your intuition isn’t misleading you in high-stakes scenarios? I like to think of socialisation of challenges or opportunities, not just strategy. By sharing challenges or opportunities with diverse colleagues or advisors without a preemptive answer, I have a chance to check others intuition which may be very different to my own. Ive also found a useful practice of outsourcing some recommendations to impartial subject experts, where I’ve felt I may have bias or could be too ready to rush to an answer, or where their input could add weight to a strategy. Q6. If your intuition and the data point in opposite directions, how do you reconcile the two? As someone who is very data-led, if the data and my intuition point in different directions, I will typically reframe my viewpoint taking the new data into account. The exception is if I feel confident there is an angle that the data does not consider or measure, and in which case I would look for the smallest, meaningful and reversible step that delivers enough data to prove out my intuition. To get others on board, I would typically use emotional, story driven techniques, such as framing from a customers perspective, as well as highlight the ideally low cost of testing my intuition. Conclusion

Luke’s reflections remind us that strategy isn’t about rigid plans or flawless foresight, it’s about clarity, adaptability, and the discipline to test assumptions in the real world. By combining structured frameworks with intuition checked against data and diverse perspectives, leaders can make better decisions even in the face of uncertainty.

As Luke puts it, the real craft lies in finding the smallest meaningful step forward, learning quickly, and staying open to course correction. It’s this balance of decisiveness and humility that sets resilient strategy leaders apart.